THE rather crude image of a political tent with one’s adversaries outside pissing in, or alternatively inside pissing out, is attributed to US President Lyndon Johnson. In South Africa, following the 29 May elections the first option has been chosen with formation of the inaccurately named government of national unity (GNU). So, Cyril Ramaphosa was duly inaugurated once more as president on Wednesday 19 June.
Before looking at possible future developments, it is worth considering two electoral trends that have been downplayed or simply ignored. The first is that the ANC has not lost its majority or share of the vote (about 65%), which has been fairly constant since 1994. It has simply fractured into four (or more depending on your point of view) constituent parts that still have much in common. Second, if the votes of the right-wing populist, neo-fascist parties (MK Party, Economic Freedom Fighters and Patriotic Alliance ‒ forget the left-wing rhetoric) are combined, they amount to 26‒27% of the total compared to 23% for the centre parties (Democratic Alliance, Action SA and some of the new arrivals like Rise Mzansi). Inkatha, Freedom Front and the African Christian Democratic Party might fit either category. This centre has grown slightly, but not significantly.
Star of the election was the MKP and it is important to recognise its ambitions and potential. While convicted criminal and racketeer Jacob Zuma is clearly a rallying figure, MK is about much more and will outlast him, although the Lady Macbeth of South African politics, his daughter Duduzile Sambudla, lurks in the background. Its popularity is clearly about multiple factors. One of them is the exploitation of Zulu ethnic identity. The geographic distribution of most of the MK vote – KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), Mpumalanga and Gauteng – is no accident. And the only voting districts won by the ANC in KZN were uMzimkhulu and Greater Kokstad, which have strong historic links to the Eastern Cape and significant Xhosa, Sotho and Griqua communities.
MKP’s programme of majoritarianism and nationalisation involves abolition of the Constitution, the rule of law and the rights of minorities; and the imposition of a cross between a feudal, patriarchal, traditional Africanism and Soviet authoritarianism. MKP supporters are a coalition of the aggrieved, some understandably so by marginalisation and poverty. Others are racist thugs in various mafias who do business with the barrel of a gun and have no scruples about admitting it. The embryo of MKP can be traced to the insurrection of July 2021 that left 350 people dead and a trail of devastation in KZN and Gauteng. And the overall legacy is the decade of state capture that wrecked South Africa. MKP are now back for more and riding a populist wave. They also claim the election was rigged and stolen from them. Given the nature of the leadership, the echoes of recent and current American politics are uncanny although the supposed nine million missing votes are well beyond even Donald Trump’s imaginings. No one else seems to have noticed the error, but revolutionary fervour is innumerate.
Siphiwe Nyanda, former MK Council chair and head of the SA National Defence Force who fought apartheid and then supported constitutional democracy, describes MKP as the ANC’s nemesis. He believes that the ANC indulged Zuma and his sidekick Ace Magashule instead of dealing with them decisively and that they now scent a comeback. Understandably, Nyanda is angry and he has denounced Zuma as a pseudo-revolutionary who was never committed to the core values of the ANC. Richard Pithouse has described MKP as driven by ‘a violent, destructive and predatory elite centred around the charisma of a leader with extreme right-wing positions on social issues.’[1] And it has a paramilitary wing, most visible around Zuma’s Nkandla stronghold.
Competing for similar political turf are the EFFs who took a small backward step at these elections. They share most of MKP’s economic objectives, although they have not gone as far as calling for the abolition of the Constitution. Their forte is disruption of parliament and political theatrics, something they now claim to be giving up. With their command structure and red uniforms, they also display classic neo-fascist characteristics. Like the MKP they use the ruse of ‘white monopoly capital’, a slogan ironically conjured up by a British public relations outfit now happily defunct, to mask their predatory ambitions, which were well illustrated in the collapse of the VBS Bank.
Ramaphosa’s presidency has been strikingly inadequate with failure to get to grips with the corruption and incompetence in the ranks of the ANC. But he is essentially a negotiator and conciliator as was shown during the days of constitutional talks in the 1990s. Thus, one of the architects of the Constitution has made the right choice to align the ANC with large parties committed to constitutionalism. This may seem logical, but logic was not inevitable. Those who want to turn South Africa into an African version of Venezuela and Russia are frozen out, not only nationally but also in KZN and Gauteng. With the Western Cape run by the DA, the ANC has lost unchallenged power in all three of four main economic nodes: Durban, Johannesburg/Tshwane, and Cape Town; leaving only Gqeberha/East London.
The MKP is correct on one point: this is not a GNU, presumably a term selected for its resonance of 1994, but a multi-party coalition. Nominally it consists of eleven parties with a scramble to join from the smaller ones no doubt in search of status far beyond their electoral support. And it is an unlikely one that many believed would not materialise, although the numbers make it logical. They are more than sufficient to sustain a government for five years. And this is the best that could have been hoped for given South Africa’s dire political and economic situation. But can it work?
The ANC and DA are the parties that matter and they share many objectives, but their political cultures are poles apart. One still carries a heavy burden of Soviet collectivism and group think; the other values individualism and Western liberal democracy. This is increasingly reflected in their attitudes to foreign relations. One is Leninist wedded to the merging of party and state resulting in the disastrous doctrine of cadre deployment. The other favours meritocracy and a professional public service. Thus, the DA’s current concerns about directors-general. Even with the best will in the world and focusing on South Africa’s interests it is hard to see the coalition lasting. And if it is feasible to repair South Africa, this will take much longer than the five-year span of one administration. It is unlikely that the electorate possesses that degree of patience even over a situation for which it ultimately is responsible through blindly returning six successive ANC governments.
The internal machinations of the ANC are a potential problem. There are many populist sleepers in the rump ANC and others such as Zweli Mkhize and Lindiwe Sisulu who openly backed a ‘black pact’ between the ANC and MKP. This appears also to be supported by individuals such as former Ethekwini (Durban) mayor Zandile Gumede, currently facing multiple charges of corruption over a waste management contract. While the DA is the most racially diverse of the large parties, it is vulnerable to devious accusations of whiteness. Its insistence on proper process, efficiency and the rule of law in terms of the Constitution to save South Africa is maliciously misrepresented as a return to apartheid by the racketeers and African nationalists whose voice is so loudly heard on the airwaves. Ultimately, it may all boil down to the fact that numerous ANC freeloaders are about to lose influence and income and may jump ship. And a coalition may be a means to neutralise the DA and perpetuate corrupt ANC rule: the examples of Britain and New Zealand show that junior coalition partners are set up for failure.
Unfortunately, to describe the MPC as a logical and sane outcome is also to condemn it. As the politics of the USA may be about to show, rationality and common sense can be a fatal burden in a post-modern era of lies, fake news, self-absorption, and feelings. Momentum is with the MKP and its message, however nonsensical, appeals to the instincts of many South Africans just as voters worldwide are increasingly backing populists with glib answers.
There is a naïve belief in some circles that if only all South Africans could ‘pull together’ their country could be a world leader. These vague sentiments often invoke rugby metaphors and ignore the fact that South Africans are increasingly illiterate, innumerate, unhealthy and unmotivated. They don’t need feel-good slogans; just to make some very hard and determined choices about how the country should be run. In the meantime, the MPC may well achieve a unique distinction with foes simultaneously pissing in and pissing out.
[1] Chris Makhaye and Greg Ardé, ‘Trouble brews in KZN as Zuma weaponizes his MK party victory’ DM 168, 8 June 2024: 4.